Adjust the Model to the Evidence

Posted: January 9th, 2009 under Practice of Medicine.

You are at a sink to wash your hands. You have used this sink before and know that if you turn the knob beyond two thirds, the water will be too hot. Less than one third of a turn is too cold, and halfway is warm – perfect for hand washing. This is your model.

So you turn the knob to halfway and begin washing your hands. However, the water heats up faster than you expected and reaches an uncomfortable temperature. This new evidence conflicts with your model, and you are faced with two choices. The first is to continue believing that at half a turn water is ideal for hand washing. You would thus wash your hands in scalding water and convince yourself that something other than the water’s temperature is causing your pain.

Your second choice is to carve an exception into your model: Turn the knob halfway and the temperature is usually pleasant, but is sometimes too hot. When you make this choice you are adjusting your model to the evidence. And this gives you mental freedom to turn the knob until the water is at a more pleasant temperature.

Tomorrow, you find that the halfway mark is still too hot for comfort. In fact, every time you use the sink for the next month, a half turn is uncomfortably warm and one third turn is ideal. Either there has been a permanent change in the plumbing, or the original model was incorrect.

Regardless, it would probably be a good idea to change your model. If you do not, the following routine will ensue repeatedly: you turn the knob halfway until the water burns your hands. Then you apply the aforementioned exception and lower the knob to one third turn.

A very unsexy truth

The answer to America’s healthcare problems, and the catalyst for a medical revolution, will not be found in politics, technology, or economics. The answer lies in mental thought processes and philosophies. At its heart, this means better education and training. Let me clarify that better is not added years of formal education and a more rigorous curriculum. It means doctors must be taught how to adjust and refine their models and methods by what they see in practice.

Alexander Typaldos, JD



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